tensorlink-dev/tsfm-toto2-4m-400k-native

TSFM tokenizer ablation — Toto-2-4m-recipe clone (v10)

VQ-VAE OPTIMIZATION ablation (codebook health + next-code objective vs raw patches) on a ~3.6M-param decoder-only patched transformer trained on the OFFICIAL TempoPFN synthetic prior generators (cloned from automl/TempoPFN; GP/KernelSynth families capped at 6,144 steps, so the long pool uses the cheap families only) with contiguous patch masking, a 9-level quantile head, NorMuon+AdamW, and index RoPE at time-scaled positions. Horizon decoding is fixed patch-32 in every arm; only the CONTEXT tokenizer varies:

Each subfolder is one (arm, seed) run: model.pt (final), ckpt_15000.pt (rank-stability snapshot), config.json, results.json (dev-GIFT CRPS + long-horizon probe). Dev metrics use a fixed 14-task GIFT-Eval subset — NOT the full leaderboard; treat numbers as ablation-internal, not comparable to published GIFT scores. Generated by the v10 experiment notebook.

Results

=== transfer curve: GM-CRPS by checkpoint (dev-14, mean over seeds) ===
                  gm@30000  gm@100000  gm@200000  gm@300000  gm@final  gm_final_std  long_season  params_m     perp  probe_amp  n
arm                                                                                                                              
V0_champion_400k    0.2373      0.205     0.2126     0.2246    0.1991           NaN       0.2693     3.878  552.512      0.307  1

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