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Prateek2001/nifty50-ensemble-predictor

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Nifty 50 Ensemble Directional Predictor

Market Regime Detection + Calibrated ML Ensemble for 1m & 5m Directional Prediction


Task	Binary classification: Nifty 50 Up/Down in next 1m or 5m
Architecture	HMM Regime Detector + Calibrated RF/GBM/XGB/LGB Ensemble
Features	50+ technical indicators (trend, momentum, volatility, volume, price lags)
Regimes	5 HMM states: Bull, Bear, Transitional, High-Vol, Low-Vol
Papers	HAELT (2025) arxiv:2506.13981 + HMM+NN Trading (2024) arxiv:2407.19858

Architecture

OHLCV Input
    |
    v
[Feature Engineering] -- 50+ technical indicators
    |
    +---> [HMM Regime Detector] -- 5 market states
    |                                  |
    v                                  v
[Feature Selection] -- MI-based      [Regime Labels]
    |
    v
[Calibrated Ensemble]
    - Random Forest (max_depth=4, class_weight='balanced')
    - Gradient Boosting (max_depth=3, subsample=0.6)
    - XGBoost (max_depth=3, heavy L1/L2 regularization)
    - LightGBM (max_depth=3, num_leaves=7)
    |
    v
[Dynamic Weighting] -- Soft vote mean of calibrated probabilities
    |
    v
Probability Up / Down

Performance (Current Dataset)

Data: Nifty 50 (^NSEI) from Yahoo Finance

—1m: ~5,600 rows (Apr 15 - May 7, 2026) = ~22 trading days
—5m: ~2,400 rows (Mar 16 - May 7, 2026) = ~52 trading days

Out-of-sample (20% holdout):

Horizon	Accuracy	F1	AUC	Brier
1m	49.2%	0.59	0.49	0.25
5m	52.0%	0.59	0.52	0.25

Note: Performance is near-random because ~22 days of 1m data is insufficient for intraday prediction. The model needs 6+ months of 1m data (~50k+ rows) for statistical edge. This repository provides the production-ready framework.

Usage

Inference

bash

python inference.py --data nifty_1m.csv --model models_v2_1m --horizon 1 --output predictions.csv

Backtest

bash

python backtest.py --data nifty_1m.csv --model models_v2_1m --threshold 0.55 --output backtest.csv

Python API

python

import pandas as pd
from nifty_ensemble_v2 import NiftyEnsembleV2

# Load model
pipe = NiftyEnsembleV2()
pipe.load("models_v2_1m")

# Predict on new data
df = pd.read_csv("nifty_1m.csv", index_col="Datetime", parse_dates=True)
results = pipe.predict(df)

# Results
df["proba_up"] = results["proba"][:, 1]
df["prediction"] = results["pred"]
df["regime"] = results["regime"]

Gradio Demo

bash

pip install gradio
python app.py

Upload a CSV with columns: Datetime, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume

Data Requirements

For production-grade results, use 6-12 months of 1-minute OHLCV data:

Source	URL
Kaggle (Nifty 1m)	https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/debashis74017/nifty-50-minute-data
NSE Historical	https://www.niftyindices.com/reports/historical-data
Broker APIs	Zerodha Kite Connect, Upstox API

Recommended CSV format:

csv

Datetime,Open,High,Low,Close,Volume
2026-04-15 09:15:00+05:30,24166.1,24266.7,24166.1,24232.9,0

Retraining

python

from nifty_ensemble_v2 import NiftyEnsembleV2

df = pd.read_csv("your_6months_1m_data.csv", index_col="Datetime", parse_dates=True)

pipe = NiftyEnsembleV2(max_features=25)
train_df, test_df = pipe.fit(df, horizon=1, test_size=0.2)
metrics = pipe.evaluate()  # Out-of-sample metrics
pipe.save("models_v2_1m_retrained")

References

1.HAELT (2025) - arxiv:2506.13981 - Hybrid Attention Ensemble for stock direction
2.HMM+NN Trading (2024) - arxiv:2407.19858 - Gaussian HMM regime detection + PyTorch NN
3.ta library for technical indicators: https://github.com/ta-lib/ta-lib-python

Disclaimer: This is for research and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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