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openthomas/weather-forecasts

OpenThomas weather forecasts Every forecast the OpenThomas weather desk read or produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind the paper's replay experiments (docs/EXPERIMENTS.md in the harness repository). file what lines / bytes data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus… See the full description on the dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/openthomas/weather-forecasts.

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OpenThomas weather forecasts

Every forecast the OpenThomas weather desk read or produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind the paper's replay experiments (docs/EXPERIMENTS.md in the harness repository).

filewhatlines / bytes
data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonlas-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI)25,302
data/own-models.jsonlstation-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps3,360
data/gencast-spread.jsonper station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input)3,295
data/graphcast-tempseries.jsoncoarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run112,840
data/baseline-nbm.jsonlas-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline2,120
data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonlas-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive)2,118

Frozen replay datasets and experiment results

replay/ holds the frozen decision-time rows (one JSONL per window, digest in the filename) and the experiment results scored on them. A row carries the settlement station and day, the baseline probability at the snapshot, the Kalshi bid/ask at that snapshot, and the outcome — never anything the agent could not have known at decision time.

  • —replay/e3-high9.txt
  • —replay/e3-low1.txt
  • —replay/e3-low2.txt
  • —replay/e3e4.log
  • —replay/e3e4.sh
  • —replay/e4.log
  • —replay/e4.sh
  • —replay/e4.txt
  • —replay/lineage.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.md
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.json
  • —replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.md
  • —replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json
  • —replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md
  • —replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json
  • —replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md
  • —replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json
  • —replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl
  • —replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl

Conventions

  • —Temperatures are °F; settlements are the integer daily extreme from the NWS Climatological Report (via ACIS), the number the markets settle on.
  • —lead is days ahead: lead 1 for target day d is what the model published on d − 1.
  • —NBM / GFS MOS baselines use the d − 1 12Z run, read from the IEM MOS archive as issued.
  • —Own-model rows carry issued_at; the run that produced them is identified by that timestamp and the model name.

Paper trading. Nothing here is financial advice.