nishkal2010/sba-loan-maturity-wall
The SBA Loan Maturity Wall A forward calendar of likely U.S. small-business ownership changes — computed from public SBA loan records. Every SBA 7(a) and 504 loan has an approval date and a term. Add them together and you get a maturity year: the point at which the loan balloons and the owner faces a dated decision — refinance, or sell. Aggregated across the SBA's public FOIA disclosures, those maturity dates form a forward-looking signal of when small businesses are most likely… See the full description on the dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/nishkal2010/sba-loan-maturity-wall.
The SBA Loan Maturity Wall
A forward calendar of likely U.S. small-business ownership changes — computed from public SBA loan records.
Every SBA 7(a) and 504 loan has an approval date and a term. Add them together and you get a maturity year: the point at which the loan balloons and the owner faces a dated decision — refinance, or sell. Aggregated across the SBA's public FOIA disclosures, those maturity dates form a forward-looking signal of when small businesses are most likely to change hands — unlike almost every other acquisition dataset, which only records sales that already happened.
This dataset computes that maturity year for 66,307 loans where the term is disclosed, and counts how many come due each year — nationally and broken out by state, industry, and metro.
- 2,639 small-business loans come due in 2026
- 2,737 in 2027
This industry × metro × maturity-year cut is not published anywhere else. Aggregate SBA totals exist elsewhere; this breakdown does not.
Key findings
The wall keeps rising through the decade — and peaks in 2027. SBA loans maturing per year, nationally:
California dominates. States with the most small-business SBA loans maturing in 2026:
Manufacturing, dental, and auto repair lead the transition wave. Industries by 2026 maturities: manufacturing 788, dental 575, auto repair 574, HVAC & plumbing 252, veterinary 204, landscaping 188, funeral homes 58.
Top metros for 2026 maturities: Los Angeles (141), Chicago (86), San Francisco (67), Minneapolis (64), Houston (62), Riverside–San Bernardino (56), Dallas–Fort Worth (56), Atlanta (55), New York (54), Phoenix (52).
Every one of these numbers is reproducible from the CSV below.
Files
Schema
Long format, four columns:
Example:
dimension,key,maturity_year,companies
national,all,2026,2639
national,all,2027,2737
state,TX,2026,...
vertical,funeral_homes,2026,...
metro,atlanta_sandy_springs_alpharetta_ga,2026,...Method
maturity_year = SBA loan approval date + disclosed term, taken from the SBA's public 7(a) and 504 FOIA data files. Counts are grouped by maturity year within each dimension.
Limits (please carry these with any citation)
- The loan term is absent from a meaningful share of SBA records, so these counts undercount the true number of maturities.
- Maturity is derived from approval date plus disclosed term, so it ignores refinancing, early payoff, and extensions — a loan counted as maturing in 2026 may already have been repaid or renewed.
- It is a signal of likely transition timing, not a record of actual sales.
License
Released under CC0 1.0 Universal — a public-domain dedication. No attribution required. Use it for anything.
Source & context
Built and maintained by [Scouly](https://scouly.com) — off-market small-business acquisition sourcing from public signals (SBA loans, PPP payroll, business longevity, market fragmentation).
- Full dataset page and provenance: https://scouly.com/data
- Background and analysis: [The SBA Maturity Wall — 66,307 loans and when they come due](https://scouly.com/blog/sba-loan-maturity-wall)