cjc0013/beyond-stuxnet-ii-minnesota-forecast-audit

Beyond Stuxnet II: Minnesota Water Systems Forecast Audit

This repository contains a defensive, evidence-grounded white paper auditing an earlier structural cyber-physical threat model against later reported Minnesota water-system incidents.

The paper does not claim that the earlier work predicted Iran, Minnesota, water utilities, a particular intrusion path, or every reported event detail. Its narrower conclusion is that the earlier public artifact committed to a mechanism class before the incidents and that several later observations align with that class. Misses, unknowns, prior public baselines, and defense-fit observations are preserved separately.

Read the paper

• —Beyond Stuxnet II — Minnesota Water Systems Forecast Audit

Forecast receipt and provenance

• —Earlier public repository: beyond-stuxnet-structural-defense
• —Earliest public commit: `f0fcdf1c4d94d0de97cba1e066e4dab077233b53`
• —Earliest public commit timestamp (UTC): 2026-07-17T03:16:44Z
• —Earlier PDF SHA-256: e07b332af2f6c24f6475fd5a7f186e4b412096b52e0743bbf4c8119db45fdfab
• —This PDF SHA-256: 7d6046ccb33d5c1f74cedc6aafa23f2805491aa13804b525e282684ad64c50a6
• —Audit date and evidence cutoff: 2026-08-01

The appendix supplies exact original quotations, page references, claim classes, predicted observables, falsifiers, later evidence, and adjudications. The paper distinguishes forecast alignment from defense validation and from facts not established in the public record.

Safety and scope

This is defensive research for operators, vendors, integrators, policymakers, and reviewers. It does not provide exploit code, operational intrusion instructions, credentials, or targeting guidance. Attribution and incident details remain bounded by the cited public record as of the evidence cutoff.

AI assistance and review

The artifact was prepared with AI-assisted research and drafting under operator direction. AI output is not treated as evidence; factual claims and quotations are tied to cited public sources and the frozen earlier artifact.

Release status and rights

This bundle is an operator-reviewed publication candidate staged privately before any manual visibility change. license: other is intentional: no additional license grant is asserted by this repository.