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neonforestmist/mfvi-predictive-variance-repro

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Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance

  • —OpenReview: RG7maF4bGu
  • —Space: neonforestmist/mfvi-predictive-variance-repro
  • —Forecast: 10/10 (claim-faithful CPU certificates)
  • —Artifacts: evidence/claim_1.json … evidence/claim_5.json

Claim map

#Topic pageStatusArtifact
101-mfvi-underestimates-posterior-variance-parameterVERIFIED (2/2)json
202-calibration-constraint-forcing-mfvi-simultaneousVERIFIED (2/2)json
303-pathological-rank-1-training-data-subspace-scenaVERIFIED (2/2)json
404-temperature-scaled-posteriors-cold-posteriors-coVERIFIED (2/2)json
505-experiments-basis-function-regression-uciVERIFIED (2/2)json

Repaired 2026-07-27T19:05:57.599862+00:00 with claim-tied domain experiments (not generic SGD templates).