SimpleFunctions/world-state-daily

1{2  "date": "2026-06-26",3  "timestamp": "2026-06-26T23:50:11.310Z",4  "index": {5    "disagreement": 51,6    "geoRisk": 0,7    "breadth": 0.53,8    "activity": 869  },10  "traditional": [11    {12      "symbol": "SPY",13      "price": 734,14      "changePct": -0.4415    },16    {17      "symbol": "QQQ",18      "price": 714.95,19      "changePct": -1.3920    },21    {22      "symbol": "IWM",23      "price": 299.2,24      "changePct": 0.5325    },26    {27      "symbol": "VIXY",28      "price": 22.49,29      "changePct": 0.4930    },31    {32      "symbol": "SHY",33      "price": 82.1,34      "changePct": 0.0435    },36    {37      "symbol": "IEF",38      "price": 94.79,39      "changePct": 0.0640    },41    {42      "symbol": "TLT",43      "price": 87.31,44      "changePct": -0.2545    },46    {47      "symbol": "HYG",48      "price": 79.91,49      "changePct": 0.0150    },51    {52      "symbol": "GLD",53      "price": 369.12,54      "changePct": 0.6555    },56    {57      "symbol": "USO",58      "price": 109.28,59      "changePct": 3.1460    },61    {62      "symbol": "UNG",63      "price": 11.75,64      "changePct": 0.1765    },66    {67      "symbol": "CPER",68      "price": 36.99,69      "changePct": 1.7970    },71    {72      "symbol": "UUP",73      "price": 28.49,74      "changePct": -0.1675    },76    {77      "symbol": "FXE",78      "price": 104.96,79      "changePct": 0.1880    },81    {82      "symbol": "XLE",83      "price": 54.1,84      "changePct": 1.0385    },86    {87      "symbol": "EEM",88      "price": 67.96,89      "changePct": -1.3690    },91    {92      "symbol": "IBIT",93      "price": 33.55,94      "changePct": -2.6795    },96    {97      "symbol": "ETHE",98      "price": 12.58,99      "changePct": -3.08100    }101  ],102  "topics": [],103  "topEdges": [],104  "divergences": [105    {106      "description": "Equity-oil split: SPY -0.4% vs Oil +3.1% — supply shock, equity drag",107      "implication": "supply shock, equity drag",108      "affectedTickers": []109    }110  ],111  "markdown": "# World (2026-06-26 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 51 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth +0.53 | Activity 86\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [consensus_break] Los Angeles C / Los Angeles R Pro Football t…: 10 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSBHOST\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSBHOST-2031-BAL\",\"title\":\"Will the Baltimore Pro Football team be announced as the host for the 2031 Pro Football Championship?: Baltimore\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"...\n- dispersion: 45\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fm79i3`\n\n## [consensus_break] What will be the top AI model this month?: 6 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXTOPMODEL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26JUN29-CLAU\",\"title\":\"What will be the top AI model this month?: claude-opus-4-6\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26JUN29-CLAUF\",\"title\":\"What will be t...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ufrmu0`\n\n## [consensus_break] Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime…: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 88¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBURNHAMPM\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBURNHAMPM-27JAN01-0711\",\"title\":\"Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before July 11, 2026?: Before July 11, 2026\",\"pri...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 88\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f2chsu`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 13h — U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime…\n- ticker: KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T30\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime Day 2026 be at least $30 billion?: At least $30 billion\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 13\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T30`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T30`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 87% yes in 13h — U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime…\n- ticker: KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T26\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime Day 2026 be at least $26 billion?: At least $26 billion\n- price: 87\n- settlesInHours: 13\n- impliedProbability: 0.87\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T26`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T26`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 2d — Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth …\n- ticker: KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B149\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 21, 2026?: 140-159\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 38\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B149`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B149`\n\n## [residual] 1.3σ volume @ 38¢ — CPI rise more than -0.2% in June?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in June 2026?: Above -0.2%\n- price: 38\n- residualVr: 1.28\n- vr: 1.931\n- volume24h: 2228.87\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-8d1d8q`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY -0.4% vs Oil +3.1% — supply shock, equity drag\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"-0.4%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"+3.1%\"}\n- hypothesis: supply shock, equity drag\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n  → SPY spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 1.2σ volume @ 24¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 3.8%\n- price: 24\n- residualVr: 1.164\n- vr: 1.815\n- volume24h: 4029.68\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3n3f`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8`\n\n## [regime_shift] dispersion up — fading conviction: Disagreement 41→51 (+10)\n- baselineAt: 2026-06-26T11:45:00.143Z\n- driver: economy\n- primaryMover: Disagreement\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Disagreement\",\"from\":41,\"to\":51,\"Δ\":10,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":41,\"geoRisk\":0,\"breadth\":0.46,\"activity\":83}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":51,\"geoRisk\":0,\"breadth\":0.53,\"activity\":86}\n  → drill into economy · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy`\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 115 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 449 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 872 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 603 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 1882 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 512 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 65 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 103 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 2431ms",112  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1674113}